Chiny zdecydowały, że nadszedł czas, aby poluzować swoje sznurki i wpompować pieniądze w gospodarkę, aby powstrzymać zagrożenia dla stagnacji rynku nieruchomości.
Ludowy Bank Chin poinformował w poniedziałek, że obniży stopę rezerw obowiązkowych dla większości banków o pół punktu procentowego, począwszy od 15 grudnia. Ten ruch, który zmniejszy ilość pieniędzy, które banki muszą trzymać w rezerwie, uwolni około 1,2 biliona juanów (188 miliardów dolarów) na pożyczki dla firm i gospodarstw domowych.
Decyzja – druga w tym roku obniżka tego wskaźnika – zapadła tego samego dnia, kiedy Politbiuro Chin zasygnalizowało, że może podjąć bardziej agresywne działania w celu ochrony gospodarki w 2022 roku. Kierownictwo Chińskiej Partii Komunistycznej pod przewodnictwem prezydenta Xi Jinpinga stwierdzenie, że „zapewnienie stabilności” będzie najwyższym priorytetem w nadchodzącym roku.
Zdaniem Larry’ego Hu, szefa chińskiej gospodarki, oświadczenie wyróżniało się użyciem wyrażenia „stabilność jest najwyższym priorytetem” — po raz pierwszy politbiuro użyło tych słów na grudniowym posiedzeniu, które poświęcone jest omówieniu nadchodzącego roku dla Macquarie Group.
„Innymi słowy, czołowi liderzy są głęboko zaniepokojeni ryzykiem potencjalnej niestabilności” – dodał w poniedziałkowej notatce badawczej.
Pekin bardzo ostrożnie podchodzi do interwencji w ożywienie gospodarcze Chin podczas pandemii koronawirusa. Od początku 2020 r. nie obniżyła referencyjnej stopy kredytowej kraju i powstrzymała się od zalewania gospodarki bodźcami – zamiast tego oferuje bardziej ukierunkowane wsparcie mniejszym firmom, które zostały dotknięte pandemią.
ZOBACZ: https://polskago.pl/2021/09/jak-chiny-planuja-zapobiec-kryzysowi-finansowemu-evergrande/
Druga co do wielkości gospodarka świata przewyższyła inne duże narody podczas pandemii i była jedyną poważną gospodarką światową, która odnotowała wzrost w zeszłym roku.
Jednak w 2021 r. Chiny stanęły przed szeregiem wyzwań związanych ze wzrostem, w tym brakiem energii, opóźnieniami w transporcie i kryzysem na rynku nieruchomości. Analitycy niepokoili się również skutkami masowej represji w tym kraju na firmy technologiczne i inne firmy prywatne.
Hu zauważył, że podczas spotkania Biura Politycznego w grudniu zeszłego roku kierownictwo zasygnalizowało zaostrzenie przepisów dotyczących prywatnych firm – polityki, która zdominowała nagłówki w 2022 roku.
„Tym razem spotkanie Biura Politycznego sugeruje, że priorytet przesunął się z zacieśniania regulacji na wspieranie wzrostu” – dodał.
Kryzys na rynku nieruchomości może być największy w Chinach. Evergrande — jeden z największych i najbardziej zadłużonych deweloperów w kraju — od miesięcy balansuje na krawędzi niewypłacalności. W piątek ostrzegł, że może nie mieć wystarczającej ilości pieniędzy na spełnienie swoich zobowiązań finansowych, co spowodowało w poniedziałek spadek akcji w Hongkongu o 20%.
Analitycy od dawna obawiali się, że upadek Evergrande może odbić się na całym sektorze nieruchomości w Chinach, który stanowi aż 30% PKB.
Przed poniedziałkowym oświadczeniem Biura Politycznego Pekin był dość stanowczy w zwalczaniu tego, co uważał za nadmierne pożyczki i niesforną aktywność w sektorze nieruchomości. Xi w 2017 roku ogłosił, że „mieszkanie służy do życia, a nie do spekulacji” – stwierdzenie, które wydaje się napędzać politykę w Chinach od lat.
Jednak analitycy Citi zauważyli we wtorek, że Politbiuro nie powtórzyło tego edyktu w tym tygodniu, podkreślając, że kraj będzie musiał wspierać „rozsądny popyt mieszkaniowy” w przyszłości.
To, wraz z obniżką wskaźników przez bank centralny, „wysyła sygnał, że polityka stanie się bardziej akomodacyjna wobec nieruchomości”, napisali w notatce badawczej.
Chińskie akcje poprawiły się we wtorek po ruchach. Indeks Hang Seng (HSI) w Hongkongu wzrósł o 2,7%, odrabiając straty po poniedziałkowym spadku o 1,8%, ponieważ akcje spółek nieruchomościowych i technologicznych zostały zlikwidowane. Chiński Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) zamknął się o 0,2%.
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